Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Math Biosci. 2020 12; 330:108472.MB

Abstract

This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is evaluated by considering its predictive accuracy on current data and is then extended to a three-stage version to explore relaxations. The results show the extent to which each country was successful in reducing the reproductive number and demonstrate how the approach is able to model recent increases in the number of cases in all six countries, including the second peak in the US. The results also indicate that the current levels of relaxation in all five European countries could lead to significant second waves that last longer than the corresponding first waves. While there is uncertainty about the implications of these findings at this stage, they do suggest that a lot of vigilance is needed.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Computing, Ulster University, Shore Road, Newtownabbey, Co. Antrim, BT37 0QB, UK. Electronic address: dh.glass@ulster.ac.uk.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32980417

Citation

Glass, David H.. "European and US Lockdowns and Second Waves During the COVID-19 Pandemic." Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 330, 2020, p. 108472.
Glass DH. European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic. Math Biosci. 2020;330:108472.
Glass, D. H. (2020). European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical Biosciences, 330, 108472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108472
Glass DH. European and US Lockdowns and Second Waves During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Math Biosci. 2020;330:108472. PubMed PMID: 32980417.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic. A1 - Glass,David H, Y1 - 2020/09/24/ PY - 2020/06/25/received PY - 2020/08/25/revised PY - 2020/08/26/accepted PY - 2020/9/28/pubmed PY - 2020/11/27/medline PY - 2020/9/27/entrez SP - 108472 EP - 108472 JF - Mathematical biosciences JO - Math Biosci VL - 330 N2 - This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is evaluated by considering its predictive accuracy on current data and is then extended to a three-stage version to explore relaxations. The results show the extent to which each country was successful in reducing the reproductive number and demonstrate how the approach is able to model recent increases in the number of cases in all six countries, including the second peak in the US. The results also indicate that the current levels of relaxation in all five European countries could lead to significant second waves that last longer than the corresponding first waves. While there is uncertainty about the implications of these findings at this stage, they do suggest that a lot of vigilance is needed. SN - 1879-3134 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32980417/European_and_US_lockdowns_and_second_waves_during_the_COVID_19_pandemic_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -