TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. AU - Saldaña,Fernando, AU - Flores-Arguedas,Hugo, AU - Camacho-Gutiérrez,José Ariel, AU - Barradas,Ignacio, PY - 2020/9/29/entrez PY - 2020/9/30/pubmed PY - 2020/10/10/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - basic reproduction number KW - control strategies KW - epidemic model KW - parameter estimation SP - 4165 EP - 4183 JF - Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE JO - Math Biosci Eng VL - 17 IS - 4 N2 - In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low. SN - 1551-0018 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32987574/Modeling_the_transmission_dynamics_and_the_impact_of_the_control_interventions_for_the_COVID_19_epidemic_outbreak_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -