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Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 10; 14(10):e0008760.PN

Abstract

The mosquito-borne viruses dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), now co-endemic in the Americas, pose growing threats to health worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether there exist interactions between these viruses that could shape their epidemiology. This study advances knowledge by assessing the transmission dynamics of co-circulating DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV were analyzed using georeferenced data on over 210,000 reported cases from 2011 to 2017 in Fortaleza, Brazil. Local spatial clustering tests and space-time scan statistics were used to compare transmission dynamics across all years. The transmission of co-circulating viruses in 2016 and 2017 was evaluated at fine spatial and temporal scales using a measure of spatiotemporal dependence, the τ-statistic. Results revealed differences in the diffusion of CHIKV compared to previous DENV epidemics and spatially distinct transmission of DENV/ZIKV and CHIKV during the period of their co-circulation. Significant spatial clustering of viruses of the same type was observed within 14-day time intervals at distances of up to 6.8 km (p<0.05). These results suggest that arbovirus risk is not uniformly distributed within cities during co-circulation. Findings may guide outbreak preparedness and response efforts by highlighting the clustered nature of transmission of co-circulating arboviruses at the neighborhood level. The potential for competitive interactions between the arboviruses should be further investigated.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America. Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Joaquim Távora, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil. Health Sciences Center, University of Fortaleza (UNIFOR), Edson Queiroz, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Joaquim Távora, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Joaquim Távora, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

33104708

Citation

Kazazian, Lilit, et al. "Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics of Co-circulating Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya Viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017." PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 14, no. 10, 2020, pp. e0008760.
Kazazian L, Lima Neto AS, Sousa GS, et al. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14(10):e0008760.
Kazazian, L., Lima Neto, A. S., Sousa, G. S., Nascimento, O. J. D., & Castro, M. C. (2020). Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 14(10), e0008760. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008760
Kazazian L, et al. Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics of Co-circulating Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya Viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14(10):e0008760. PubMed PMID: 33104708.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017. AU - Kazazian,Lilit, AU - Lima Neto,Antonio S, AU - Sousa,Geziel S, AU - Nascimento,Osmar José do, AU - Castro,Marcia C, Y1 - 2020/10/26/ PY - 2019/08/13/received PY - 2020/08/30/accepted PY - 2020/11/05/revised PY - 2020/10/27/pubmed PY - 2021/2/9/medline PY - 2020/10/26/entrez SP - e0008760 EP - e0008760 JF - PLoS neglected tropical diseases JO - PLoS Negl Trop Dis VL - 14 IS - 10 N2 - The mosquito-borne viruses dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), now co-endemic in the Americas, pose growing threats to health worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether there exist interactions between these viruses that could shape their epidemiology. This study advances knowledge by assessing the transmission dynamics of co-circulating DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV were analyzed using georeferenced data on over 210,000 reported cases from 2011 to 2017 in Fortaleza, Brazil. Local spatial clustering tests and space-time scan statistics were used to compare transmission dynamics across all years. The transmission of co-circulating viruses in 2016 and 2017 was evaluated at fine spatial and temporal scales using a measure of spatiotemporal dependence, the τ-statistic. Results revealed differences in the diffusion of CHIKV compared to previous DENV epidemics and spatially distinct transmission of DENV/ZIKV and CHIKV during the period of their co-circulation. Significant spatial clustering of viruses of the same type was observed within 14-day time intervals at distances of up to 6.8 km (p<0.05). These results suggest that arbovirus risk is not uniformly distributed within cities during co-circulation. Findings may guide outbreak preparedness and response efforts by highlighting the clustered nature of transmission of co-circulating arboviruses at the neighborhood level. The potential for competitive interactions between the arboviruses should be further investigated. SN - 1935-2735 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/33104708/Spatiotemporal_transmission_dynamics_of_co_circulating_dengue_Zika_and_chikungunya_viruses_in_Fortaleza_Brazil:_2011_2017_ L2 - https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008760 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -