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Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2021 03 06; 115(3):245-252.TR

Abstract

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction-but no increase-if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Aliee M
Zeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Castaño S
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, Postfach, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.
Davis CN
Zeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Patel S
Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Miaka EM
Programme National de lutte contre la THA (PNLTHA), Kinshasa 2, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Spencer SEF
Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Keeling MJ
Zeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Chitnis N
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, Postfach, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.
Rock KS
Zeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Mathematical Sciences Building, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

MeSH

COVID-19Communicable Disease ControlDemocratic Republic of the CongoHumansModels, TheoreticalNeglected DiseasesPandemicsPopulation SurveillanceSARS-CoV-2Trypanosoma brucei gambienseTrypanosomiasis, African

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

33611586

Citation

Aliee, Maryam, et al. "Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 Interruptions On Transmission of Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis in Two Health Zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo." Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 115, no. 3, 2021, pp. 245-252.
Aliee M, Castaño S, Davis CN, et al. Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2021;115(3):245-252.
Aliee, M., Castaño, S., Davis, C. N., Patel, S., Miaka, E. M., Spencer, S. E. F., Keeling, M. J., Chitnis, N., & Rock, K. S. (2021). Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 115(3), 245-252. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab019
Aliee M, et al. Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 Interruptions On Transmission of Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis in Two Health Zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2021 03 6;115(3):245-252. PubMed PMID: 33611586.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. AU - Aliee,Maryam, AU - Castaño,Soledad, AU - Davis,Christopher N, AU - Patel,Swati, AU - Miaka,Erick Mwamba, AU - Spencer,Simon E F, AU - Keeling,Matt J, AU - Chitnis,Nakul, AU - Rock,Kat S, PY - 2020/10/20/received PY - 2021/01/18/revised PY - 2021/01/19/accepted PY - 2021/2/22/pubmed PY - 2021/3/19/medline PY - 2021/2/21/entrez KW - gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) KW - COVID-19 KW - elimination of transmission KW - mitigation KW - modelling SP - 245 EP - 252 JF - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene JO - Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg VL - 115 IS - 3 N2 - Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction-but no increase-if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered. SN - 1878-3503 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/33611586/Predicting_the_impact_of_COVID_19_interruptions_on_transmission_of_gambiense_human_African_trypanosomiasis_in_two_health_zones_of_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -