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Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India.
Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023; 31(4):635-643.ZG

Abstract

Aim

The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region.

Subject and methods

We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Results

Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for the J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10, 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50%.

Conclusion

In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.

Links

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Haq SM
Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, J&K 190006 India.
Yaqoob U
Department of Life Science, Pacific University, Udaipur, 313003 India.
Hassan M
Department of Life Science, Pacific University, Udaipur, 313003 India.
da Silva RJ
Laboratory of Immunophysiology of Reproduction, Institute of Biomedical Science, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, 38408100 Brazil.
Calixto ES
Institute of Biology, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, 14040900 Brazil.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

33880322

Citation

Haq, Shiekh Marifatul, et al. "Predicted Impacts of Government Policies and Actions On the SARS-CoV-2 Disease in the Northwestern Himalayan Region, India." Zeitschrift Fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of Public Health, vol. 31, no. 4, 2023, pp. 635-643.
Haq SM, Yaqoob U, Hassan M, et al. Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India. Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023;31(4):635-643.
Haq, S. M., Yaqoob, U., Hassan, M., da Silva, R. J., & Calixto, E. S. (2023). Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India. Zeitschrift Fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of Public Health, 31(4), 635-643. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01541-x
Haq SM, et al. Predicted Impacts of Government Policies and Actions On the SARS-CoV-2 Disease in the Northwestern Himalayan Region, India. Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023;31(4):635-643. PubMed PMID: 33880322.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India. AU - Haq,Shiekh Marifatul, AU - Yaqoob,Umer, AU - Hassan,Musheerul, AU - da Silva,Rafaela José, AU - Calixto,Eduardo Soares, Y1 - 2021/04/16/ PY - 2020/06/24/received PY - 2021/04/03/accepted PY - 2021/4/22/pubmed PY - 2021/4/22/medline PY - 2021/4/21/entrez KW - 2019n-CoV KW - Coronavirus KW - Covid-19 KW - Infectious disease KW - Pandemic KW - Transmissibility SP - 635 EP - 643 JF - Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health JO - Z Gesundh Wiss VL - 31 IS - 4 N2 - Aim: The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region. Subject and methods: We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Results: Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for the J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10, 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50%. Conclusion: In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases. SN - 2198-1833 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/33880322/Predicted_impacts_of_government_policies_and_actions_on_the_SARS_CoV_2_disease_in_the_northwestern_Himalayan_region_India_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -