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The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19.
Comput Biol Med. 2021 06; 133:104429.CB

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted childhood vaccinations, including pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). Evaluating the possible impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence associated with a decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination is important to advocate the PCV programs. Using a deterministic, dynamic transmission model, the differential incidence and burden of IPD in children younger than 5 years in Japan were estimated between the rapid vaccination recovery (January 2021) and the delayed vaccination recovery (April 2022) scenarios for the next 10 years. In our model, the IPD incidence was reduced from 11.9/100,000 in 2019 to 6.3/100,000 in 2020, caused by a reduced transmission rate due to the COVID-19 mitigation measures. Assuming a recovery in the transmission rate in 2022 April, the incidence of IPD was estimated to increase with maximal incidence of 12.1 and 13.1/100,000 children under 5 years in the rapid and the delayed vaccination recovery scenarios. The difference in the total IPD incidence between these two scenarios was primarily driven by vaccine serotypes IPD incidence. The difference of incidence was not observed between the two scenarios after 2025. The persistent decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination rates due to the impact of COVID-19 might lead to an increased IPD incidence and an incremental disease burden.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, The Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, 555 University Ave, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada. Electronic address: taito.kitano@sickkids.ca.Department of Neonatology, Kanagawa Children's Medical Center, 2-138-4 Mutsukawa, Minami-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 232-8555, Japan.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

33930765

Citation

Kitano, Taito, and Hirosato Aoki. "The Incremental Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Associated With a Decline in Childhood Vaccination Using a Dynamic Transmission Model in Japan: a Secondary Impact of COVID-19." Computers in Biology and Medicine, vol. 133, 2021, p. 104429.
Kitano T, Aoki H. The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19. Comput Biol Med. 2021;133:104429.
Kitano, T., & Aoki, H. (2021). The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19. Computers in Biology and Medicine, 133, 104429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104429
Kitano T, Aoki H. The Incremental Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Associated With a Decline in Childhood Vaccination Using a Dynamic Transmission Model in Japan: a Secondary Impact of COVID-19. Comput Biol Med. 2021;133:104429. PubMed PMID: 33930765.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19. AU - Kitano,Taito, AU - Aoki,Hirosato, Y1 - 2021/04/24/ PY - 2021/02/24/received PY - 2021/03/31/revised PY - 2021/04/20/accepted PY - 2021/5/1/pubmed PY - 2021/6/22/medline PY - 2021/4/30/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Impact KW - Mathematical model KW - Quality-adjusted life years KW - Serotype KW - Streptococcus pneumoniae KW - Vaccine SP - 104429 EP - 104429 JF - Computers in biology and medicine JO - Comput Biol Med VL - 133 N2 - The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted childhood vaccinations, including pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). Evaluating the possible impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence associated with a decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination is important to advocate the PCV programs. Using a deterministic, dynamic transmission model, the differential incidence and burden of IPD in children younger than 5 years in Japan were estimated between the rapid vaccination recovery (January 2021) and the delayed vaccination recovery (April 2022) scenarios for the next 10 years. In our model, the IPD incidence was reduced from 11.9/100,000 in 2019 to 6.3/100,000 in 2020, caused by a reduced transmission rate due to the COVID-19 mitigation measures. Assuming a recovery in the transmission rate in 2022 April, the incidence of IPD was estimated to increase with maximal incidence of 12.1 and 13.1/100,000 children under 5 years in the rapid and the delayed vaccination recovery scenarios. The difference in the total IPD incidence between these two scenarios was primarily driven by vaccine serotypes IPD incidence. The difference of incidence was not observed between the two scenarios after 2025. The persistent decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination rates due to the impact of COVID-19 might lead to an increased IPD incidence and an incremental disease burden. SN - 1879-0534 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/33930765/The_incremental_burden_of_invasive_pneumococcal_disease_associated_with_a_decline_in_childhood_vaccination_using_a_dynamic_transmission_model_in_Japan:_A_secondary_impact_of_COVID_19_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0010-4825(21)00223-7 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -