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Preliminary prediction of the control reproduction number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China.
Appl Math. 2021; 36(2):287-303.AM

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Firstly, according to the characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic and the control measures of the government of Shaanxi Province, a general population epidemic model is established. Then, the control reproduction number of general population epidemic model is obtained. Based on the epidemic model of general population, the epidemic model of general population and college population is further established, and the control reproduction number is also obtained.

METHODS

For the established epidemic model, firstly, the expression of the control reproduction number is obtained by using the next generation matrix. Secondly, the real-time reported data of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province is used to fit the epidemic model, and the parameters in the model are estimated by least square method and MCMC. Thirdly, the Latin hypercube sampling method and partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) are adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The control reproduction number remained at 3 from January 23 to January 31, then gradually decreased from 3 to slightly greater than 0.2 by using the real-time reports on the number of COVID-19 infected cases from Health Committee of Shaanxi Province in China. In order to further control the spread of the epidemic, the following measures can be taken: (i) reducing infection by wearing masks, paying attention to personal hygiene and limiting travel; (ii) improving isolation of suspected patients and treatment of symptomatic individuals. In particular, the epidemic model of the college population and the general population is established, and the control reproduction number is given, which will provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic in the colleges.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Li ZM
School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710064 China.
Zhang TL
School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710064 China.
Gao JZ
School of Ecological Environment, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, 710072 China.
Li XQ
College of Economics and Management, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen, 041004 China.
Ma LJ
School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710064 China.
Bao XX
School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710064 China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

34177194

Citation

Li, Zhi-Min, et al. "Preliminary Prediction of the Control Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China." Applied Mathematics : a Journal of Chinese Universities, vol. 36, no. 2, 2021, pp. 287-303.
Li ZM, Zhang TL, Gao JZ, et al. Preliminary prediction of the control reproduction number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China. Appl Math. 2021;36(2):287-303.
Li, Z. M., Zhang, T. L., Gao, J. Z., Li, X. Q., Ma, L. J., & Bao, X. X. (2021). Preliminary prediction of the control reproduction number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China. Applied Mathematics : a Journal of Chinese Universities, 36(2), 287-303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11766-021-4065-2
Li ZM, et al. Preliminary Prediction of the Control Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China. Appl Math. 2021;36(2):287-303. PubMed PMID: 34177194.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Preliminary prediction of the control reproduction number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China. AU - Li,Zhi-Min, AU - Zhang,Tai-Lei, AU - Gao,Jian-Zhong, AU - Li,Xiu-Qing, AU - Ma,Ling-Juan, AU - Bao,Xiong-Xiong, Y1 - 2021/06/18/ PY - 2020/03/16/received PY - 2020/09/04/revised PY - 2021/6/28/entrez PY - 2021/6/29/pubmed PY - 2021/6/29/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Shaanxi Province KW - college population KW - control reproduction number KW - general population SP - 287 EP - 303 JF - Applied mathematics : a journal of Chinese universities JO - Appl Math VL - 36 IS - 2 N2 - OBJECTIVES: Firstly, according to the characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic and the control measures of the government of Shaanxi Province, a general population epidemic model is established. Then, the control reproduction number of general population epidemic model is obtained. Based on the epidemic model of general population, the epidemic model of general population and college population is further established, and the control reproduction number is also obtained. METHODS: For the established epidemic model, firstly, the expression of the control reproduction number is obtained by using the next generation matrix. Secondly, the real-time reported data of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province is used to fit the epidemic model, and the parameters in the model are estimated by least square method and MCMC. Thirdly, the Latin hypercube sampling method and partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) are adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the model. CONCLUSIONS: The control reproduction number remained at 3 from January 23 to January 31, then gradually decreased from 3 to slightly greater than 0.2 by using the real-time reports on the number of COVID-19 infected cases from Health Committee of Shaanxi Province in China. In order to further control the spread of the epidemic, the following measures can be taken: (i) reducing infection by wearing masks, paying attention to personal hygiene and limiting travel; (ii) improving isolation of suspected patients and treatment of symptomatic individuals. In particular, the epidemic model of the college population and the general population is established, and the control reproduction number is given, which will provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic in the colleges. SN - 1993-0445 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/34177194/Preliminary_prediction_of_the_control_reproduction_number_of_COVID_19_in_Shaanxi_Province_China_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -