Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19.
Front Public Health. 2021; 9:691262.FP

Abstract

In susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number and exaggerated expectation of infection attack rate (AR) and control efficacy. We argue that it is important to use suitable epidemiological parameter values for proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, we propose an epidemic model to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for Belgium, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We estimated a time-varying reproductive number [R 0(t)] based on the COVID-19 deaths data and we found that Belgium has the highest AR followed by Israel and the UAE.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria.The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

34291032

Citation

Tang, Xiujuan, et al. "Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19." Frontiers in Public Health, vol. 9, 2021, p. 691262.
Tang X, Musa SS, Zhao S, et al. Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19. Front Public Health. 2021;9:691262.
Tang, X., Musa, S. S., Zhao, S., Mei, S., & He, D. (2021). Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 691262. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.691262
Tang X, et al. Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19. Front Public Health. 2021;9:691262. PubMed PMID: 34291032.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19. AU - Tang,Xiujuan, AU - Musa,Salihu S, AU - Zhao,Shi, AU - Mei,Shujiang, AU - He,Daihai, Y1 - 2021/07/05/ PY - 2021/04/06/received PY - 2021/05/19/accepted PY - 2021/7/22/entrez PY - 2021/7/23/pubmed PY - 2021/7/27/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - generation interval KW - infectious period KW - latent period KW - reproduction number SP - 691262 EP - 691262 JF - Frontiers in public health JO - Front Public Health VL - 9 N2 - In susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number and exaggerated expectation of infection attack rate (AR) and control efficacy. We argue that it is important to use suitable epidemiological parameter values for proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, we propose an epidemic model to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for Belgium, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We estimated a time-varying reproductive number [R 0(t)] based on the COVID-19 deaths data and we found that Belgium has the highest AR followed by Israel and the UAE. SN - 2296-2565 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/34291032/Using_Proper_Mean_Generation_Intervals_in_Modeling_of_COVID-19. L2 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.691262 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
Try the Free App:
Prime PubMed app for iOS iPhone iPad
Prime PubMed app for Android
Prime PubMed is provided
free to individuals by:
Unbound Medicine.