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Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.
Science. 2021 Sep 24; 373(6562):eabj7364.Sci

Abstract

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of “vaccine nationalism,” we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low-access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid, equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Wagner CE
Department of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada.
Saad-Roy CM
Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Morris SE
Department of Pathology and Cell Biology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Baker RE
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. Princeton High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Mina MJ
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Farrar J
The Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
Holmes EC
Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia. School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia. School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Pybus OG
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Graham AL
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Emanuel EJ
Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Levin SA
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Metcalf CJE
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
Grenfell BT
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.

MeSH

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesEmigration and ImmigrationEvolution, MolecularGlobal HealthHumansImmune EvasionModels, TheoreticalSARS-CoV-2Strategic StockpileVaccination Coverage

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

34404735

Citation

Wagner, Caroline E., et al. "Vaccine Nationalism and the Dynamics and Control of SARS-CoV-2." Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 373, no. 6562, 2021, pp. eabj7364.
Wagner CE, Saad-Roy CM, Morris SE, et al. Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2. Science. 2021;373(6562):eabj7364.
Wagner, C. E., Saad-Roy, C. M., Morris, S. E., Baker, R. E., Mina, M. J., Farrar, J., Holmes, E. C., Pybus, O. G., Graham, A. L., Emanuel, E. J., Levin, S. A., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2021). Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2. Science (New York, N.Y.), 373(6562), eabj7364. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj7364
Wagner CE, et al. Vaccine Nationalism and the Dynamics and Control of SARS-CoV-2. Science. 2021 Sep 24;373(6562):eabj7364. PubMed PMID: 34404735.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2. AU - Wagner,Caroline E, AU - Saad-Roy,Chadi M, AU - Morris,Sinead E, AU - Baker,Rachel E, AU - Mina,Michael J, AU - Farrar,Jeremy, AU - Holmes,Edward C, AU - Pybus,Oliver G, AU - Graham,Andrea L, AU - Emanuel,Ezekiel J, AU - Levin,Simon A, AU - Metcalf,C Jessica E, AU - Grenfell,Bryan T, Y1 - 2021/09/24/ PY - 2021/8/19/pubmed PY - 2021/10/1/medline PY - 2021/8/18/entrez SP - eabj7364 EP - eabj7364 JF - Science (New York, N.Y.) JO - Science VL - 373 IS - 6562 N2 - Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of “vaccine nationalism,” we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low-access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid, equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic. SN - 1095-9203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/34404735/Vaccine_nationalism_and_the_dynamics_and_control_of_SARS_CoV_2_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -