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COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California.
J Immigr Minor Health. 2022 Feb; 24(1):18-30.JI

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disparities among vulnerable populations are of paramount concern that extend to vaccine administration. With recent uptick in infection rates, dominance of the delta variant, and authorization of a third booster shot, understanding the population-level vaccine coverage dynamics and underlying sociodemographic factors is critical for achieving equity in public health outcomes. This study aimed to characterize the scope of vaccine inequity in California counties through modeling the trends of vaccination using the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Overall SVI, its four themes, and 9228 data points of daily vaccination numbers from December 15, 2020, to May 23, 2021, across all 58 California counties were used to model the growth velocity and anticipated maximum proportion of population vaccinated, defined as having received at least one dose of vaccine. Based on the overall SVI, the vaccination coverage velocity was lower in counties in the high vulnerability category (v = 0.0346, 95% CI 0.0334, 0.0358) compared to moderate (v = 0.0396, 95% CI 0.0385, 0.0408) and low (v = 0.0414, 95% CI 0.0403, 0.0425) vulnerability categories. SVI Theme 3 (minority status and language) yielded the largest disparity in coverage velocity between low and high-vulnerable counties (v = 0.0423 versus v = 0.035, P < 0.001). Based on the current trajectory, while counties in low-vulnerability category of overall SVI are estimated to achieve a higher proportion of vaccinated individuals, our models yielded a higher asymptotic maximum for highly vulnerable counties of Theme 3 (K = 0.544, 95% CI 0.527, 0.561) compared to low-vulnerability counterparts (K = 0.441, 95% CI 0.432, 0.450). The largest disparity in asymptotic proportion vaccinated between the low and high-vulnerability categories was observed in Theme 2 describing the household composition and disability (K = 0.602, 95% CI 0.592, 0.612; versus K = 0.425, 95% CI 0.413, 0.436). Overall, the large initial disparities in vaccination rates by SVI status attenuated over time, particularly based on Theme 3 status which yielded a large decrease in cumulative vaccination rate ratio of low to high-vulnerability categories from 1.42 to 0.95 (P = 0.002). This study provides insight into the problem of COVID-19 vaccine disparity across California which can help promote equity during the current pandemic and guide the allocation of future vaccines such as COVID-19 booster shots.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Department of Neurological Surgery, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA. ssalehi@usc.edu.Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, 2025 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA, 90033, USA.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

34797451

Citation

Bruckhaus, Alexander Aram, et al. "COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based On Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California." Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health, vol. 24, no. 1, 2022, pp. 18-30.
Bruckhaus AA, Abedi A, Salehi S, et al. COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California. J Immigr Minor Health. 2022;24(1):18-30.
Bruckhaus, A. A., Abedi, A., Salehi, S., Pickering, T. A., Zhang, Y., Martinez, A., Lai, M., Garner, R., & Duncan, D. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California. Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health, 24(1), 18-30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10903-021-01308-2
Bruckhaus AA, et al. COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based On Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California. J Immigr Minor Health. 2022;24(1):18-30. PubMed PMID: 34797451.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California. AU - Bruckhaus,Alexander Aram, AU - Abedi,Aidin, AU - Salehi,Sana, AU - Pickering,Trevor A, AU - Zhang,Yujia, AU - Martinez,Aubrey, AU - Lai,Matthew, AU - Garner,Rachael, AU - Duncan,Dominique, Y1 - 2021/11/19/ PY - 2021/11/01/accepted PY - 2021/11/20/pubmed PY - 2022/1/21/medline PY - 2021/11/19/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Health equity KW - Minorities KW - Resource allocation KW - Vaccination SP - 18 EP - 30 JF - Journal of immigrant and minority health JO - J Immigr Minor Health VL - 24 IS - 1 N2 - Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disparities among vulnerable populations are of paramount concern that extend to vaccine administration. With recent uptick in infection rates, dominance of the delta variant, and authorization of a third booster shot, understanding the population-level vaccine coverage dynamics and underlying sociodemographic factors is critical for achieving equity in public health outcomes. This study aimed to characterize the scope of vaccine inequity in California counties through modeling the trends of vaccination using the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Overall SVI, its four themes, and 9228 data points of daily vaccination numbers from December 15, 2020, to May 23, 2021, across all 58 California counties were used to model the growth velocity and anticipated maximum proportion of population vaccinated, defined as having received at least one dose of vaccine. Based on the overall SVI, the vaccination coverage velocity was lower in counties in the high vulnerability category (v = 0.0346, 95% CI 0.0334, 0.0358) compared to moderate (v = 0.0396, 95% CI 0.0385, 0.0408) and low (v = 0.0414, 95% CI 0.0403, 0.0425) vulnerability categories. SVI Theme 3 (minority status and language) yielded the largest disparity in coverage velocity between low and high-vulnerable counties (v = 0.0423 versus v = 0.035, P < 0.001). Based on the current trajectory, while counties in low-vulnerability category of overall SVI are estimated to achieve a higher proportion of vaccinated individuals, our models yielded a higher asymptotic maximum for highly vulnerable counties of Theme 3 (K = 0.544, 95% CI 0.527, 0.561) compared to low-vulnerability counterparts (K = 0.441, 95% CI 0.432, 0.450). The largest disparity in asymptotic proportion vaccinated between the low and high-vulnerability categories was observed in Theme 2 describing the household composition and disability (K = 0.602, 95% CI 0.592, 0.612; versus K = 0.425, 95% CI 0.413, 0.436). Overall, the large initial disparities in vaccination rates by SVI status attenuated over time, particularly based on Theme 3 status which yielded a large decrease in cumulative vaccination rate ratio of low to high-vulnerability categories from 1.42 to 0.95 (P = 0.002). This study provides insight into the problem of COVID-19 vaccine disparity across California which can help promote equity during the current pandemic and guide the allocation of future vaccines such as COVID-19 booster shots. SN - 1557-1920 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/34797451/COVID_19_Vaccination_Dynamics_in_the_US:_Coverage_Velocity_and_Carrying_Capacity_Based_on_Socio_demographic_Vulnerability_Indices_in_California_ L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10903-021-01308-2 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -