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Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study.
Front Public Health. 2021; 9:801763.FP

Abstract

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4-89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998-885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828-27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2-2.9) million 0.7 (0.1-1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578-911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509-72,570), 19,562 (3,873-35,250), 15,739 (3,841-27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682-1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2-3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3-32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281-34,217), 42,265 (5,081-79,448), 426,860 (117,229-736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Authors+Show Affiliations

China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China.Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States. Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States.China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China.China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China.School of Public Health, Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xi'an, China.China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China. Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, China.China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China. Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, China.China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, School of Public Health, Xi'an, China. Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

35083192

Citation

Li, Rui, et al. "Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants On the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: a Mathematical Modelling Study." Frontiers in Public Health, vol. 9, 2021, p. 801763.
Li R, Li Y, Zou Z, et al. Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study. Front Public Health. 2021;9:801763.
Li, R., Li, Y., Zou, Z., Liu, Y., Li, X., Zhuang, G., Shen, M., & Zhang, L. (2021). Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 801763. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.801763
Li R, et al. Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants On the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: a Mathematical Modelling Study. Front Public Health. 2021;9:801763. PubMed PMID: 35083192.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study. AU - Li,Rui, AU - Li,Yan, AU - Zou,Zhuoru, AU - Liu,Yiming, AU - Li,Xinghui, AU - Zhuang,Guihua, AU - Shen,Mingwang, AU - Zhang,Lei, Y1 - 2022/01/10/ PY - 2021/10/25/received PY - 2021/11/22/accepted PY - 2022/1/27/entrez PY - 2022/1/28/pubmed PY - 2022/2/1/medline KW - COVID-19 vaccination KW - COVID-19 variants KW - mathematical modelling KW - social restoration KW - vaccine effectiveness SP - 801763 EP - 801763 JF - Frontiers in public health JO - Front Public Health VL - 9 N2 - Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4-89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998-885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828-27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2-2.9) million 0.7 (0.1-1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578-911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509-72,570), 19,562 (3,873-35,250), 15,739 (3,841-27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682-1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2-3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3-32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281-34,217), 42,265 (5,081-79,448), 426,860 (117,229-736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. SN - 2296-2565 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/35083192/Evaluating_the_Impact_of_SARS_CoV_2_Variants_on_the_COVID_19_Epidemic_and_Social_Restoration_in_the_United_States:_A_Mathematical_Modelling_Study_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.801763 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -