Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

An alternative estimation of the death toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in India.
PLoS One. 2022; 17(2):e0263187.Plos

Abstract

The absence of reliable registration of Covid-19 deaths in India has prevented proper assessment and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, India's relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of Covid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. In this paper, we present four different demographic samples of Indian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. We show that we can model the age distribution of Covid-19 mortality in India and use this modeling to estimate Covid-19 mortality in the country. Our findings point to a death toll of approximately 3.2-3.7 million persons by early November 2021. Once India's age structure is factored in, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of Covid-19 mortality in the world. India has recorded after February 2021 the second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. The accuracy of official statistics of Covid-19 mortality has been questioned, and the real number of Covid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. In this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of Covid-19 mortality in India. We first used a population sample with the age and sex of Covid-19 victims to develop a Gompertz model of Covid-19 mortality in India. We applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. We finally derive from these samples the most reasonable estimate of Covid-19 mortality level in India and confirm this result using a fourth population sample. Our findings point to a death toll of about 3.2-3.7 million persons by late May 2021. This is by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world. Once standardized for age and sex structure, India's Covid-19 mortality rate is above Brazil and the USA. Our analysis shows that existing population samples allow an alternative estimation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India. The results imply that only one out of 7-8 deaths appear to have been recorded as a Covid-19 death in India. The estimates also point to a very high Covid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. The magnitude of the pandemic in India requires immediate attention. In the absence of effective remedies, this calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic and its spread across India's regions and social groups.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Centre des Sciences Humaines, Delhi, India. Ceped/IRD/Université de Paris/INSERM, Paris, France.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

35171925

Citation

Guilmoto, Christophe Z.. "An Alternative Estimation of the Death Toll of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India." PloS One, vol. 17, no. 2, 2022, pp. e0263187.
Guilmoto CZ. An alternative estimation of the death toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in India. PLoS One. 2022;17(2):e0263187.
Guilmoto, C. Z. (2022). An alternative estimation of the death toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in India. PloS One, 17(2), e0263187. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263187
Guilmoto CZ. An Alternative Estimation of the Death Toll of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India. PLoS One. 2022;17(2):e0263187. PubMed PMID: 35171925.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - An alternative estimation of the death toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in India. A1 - Guilmoto,Christophe Z, Y1 - 2022/02/16/ PY - 2021/06/19/received PY - 2022/01/13/accepted PY - 2022/2/16/entrez PY - 2022/2/17/pubmed PY - 2022/3/1/medline SP - e0263187 EP - e0263187 JF - PloS one JO - PLoS One VL - 17 IS - 2 N2 - The absence of reliable registration of Covid-19 deaths in India has prevented proper assessment and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, India's relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of Covid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. In this paper, we present four different demographic samples of Indian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. We show that we can model the age distribution of Covid-19 mortality in India and use this modeling to estimate Covid-19 mortality in the country. Our findings point to a death toll of approximately 3.2-3.7 million persons by early November 2021. Once India's age structure is factored in, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of Covid-19 mortality in the world. India has recorded after February 2021 the second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. The accuracy of official statistics of Covid-19 mortality has been questioned, and the real number of Covid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. In this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of Covid-19 mortality in India. We first used a population sample with the age and sex of Covid-19 victims to develop a Gompertz model of Covid-19 mortality in India. We applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. We finally derive from these samples the most reasonable estimate of Covid-19 mortality level in India and confirm this result using a fourth population sample. Our findings point to a death toll of about 3.2-3.7 million persons by late May 2021. This is by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world. Once standardized for age and sex structure, India's Covid-19 mortality rate is above Brazil and the USA. Our analysis shows that existing population samples allow an alternative estimation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India. The results imply that only one out of 7-8 deaths appear to have been recorded as a Covid-19 death in India. The estimates also point to a very high Covid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. The magnitude of the pandemic in India requires immediate attention. In the absence of effective remedies, this calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic and its spread across India's regions and social groups. SN - 1932-6203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/35171925/An_alternative_estimation_of_the_death_toll_of_the_Covid_19_pandemic_in_India_ L2 - https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263187 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -