Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis.
BMC Med. 2022 02 18; 20(1):80.BM

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In countries with high COVID-19 vaccination rates the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers. This study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. We aimed to understand the potential effectiveness of high vaccine coverage levels together with NPI physical distancing activation and to establish the benefit of adding children and adolescents to the vaccination program. Border closure limited SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia; however, slow vaccination uptake resulted in Delta outbreaks in the two largest cities and may continue as international travel increases.

METHODS

An agent-based model was used to evaluate the potential reduction in the COVID-19 health burden resulting from alternative vaccination strategies. We assumed immunity was derived from vaccination with the BNT162b2 Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Two age-specific vaccination strategies were evaluated, ages 5 and above, and 12 and above, and the health burden determined under alternative vaccine coverages, with/without activation of NPIs. Age-specific infections generated by the model, together with recent UK data, permitted reductions in the health burden to be quantified.

RESULTS

Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are shown to reduce by (i) increasing coverage to include children aged 5 to 11 years, (ii) activating moderate NPI measures and/or (iii) increasing coverage levels above 80%. At 80% coverage, vaccinating ages 12 and above without NPIs is predicted to result in 1095 additional hospitalisations per million population; adding ages 5 and above reduces this to 996 per million population. Activating moderate NPIs reduces hospitalisations to 611 for ages 12 and over, and 382 per million for ages 5 and above. Alternatively, increasing coverage to 90% for those aged 12 and above is estimated to reduce hospitalisations to 616. Combining all three measures is shown to reduce cases to 158, hospitalisations to 1 and deaths to zero, per million population.

CONCLUSIONS

Delta variant outbreaks may be managed by vaccine coverage rates higher than 80% and activation of moderate NPI measures, preventing healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. If 90% coverage cannot be achieved, including young children and adolescents in the vaccination program coupled with activation of moderate NPIs appears necessary to suppress future COVID-19 Delta-like transmission and prevent intensive care unit surge capacity from being exceeded.

Authors+Show Affiliations

University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia. george.milne@uwa.edu.au.University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

35177062

Citation

Milne, George J., et al. "Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Disease Burden in Australia By Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and Vaccinating Children: a Modelling Analysis." BMC Medicine, vol. 20, no. 1, 2022, p. 80.
Milne GJ, Carrivick J, Whyatt D. Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis. BMC Med. 2022;20(1):80.
Milne, G. J., Carrivick, J., & Whyatt, D. (2022). Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, 20(1), 80. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02241-3
Milne GJ, Carrivick J, Whyatt D. Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Disease Burden in Australia By Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and Vaccinating Children: a Modelling Analysis. BMC Med. 2022 02 18;20(1):80. PubMed PMID: 35177062.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis. AU - Milne,George J, AU - Carrivick,Julian, AU - Whyatt,David, Y1 - 2022/02/18/ PY - 2021/10/14/received PY - 2022/01/06/accepted PY - 2022/2/18/entrez PY - 2022/2/19/pubmed PY - 2022/2/25/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Mitigation strategy effectiveness KW - Modelling KW - Non-pharmaceutical measures KW - Revised 2nd January 2022 KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - Vaccination SP - 80 EP - 80 JF - BMC medicine JO - BMC Med VL - 20 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: In countries with high COVID-19 vaccination rates the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers. This study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. We aimed to understand the potential effectiveness of high vaccine coverage levels together with NPI physical distancing activation and to establish the benefit of adding children and adolescents to the vaccination program. Border closure limited SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia; however, slow vaccination uptake resulted in Delta outbreaks in the two largest cities and may continue as international travel increases. METHODS: An agent-based model was used to evaluate the potential reduction in the COVID-19 health burden resulting from alternative vaccination strategies. We assumed immunity was derived from vaccination with the BNT162b2 Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Two age-specific vaccination strategies were evaluated, ages 5 and above, and 12 and above, and the health burden determined under alternative vaccine coverages, with/without activation of NPIs. Age-specific infections generated by the model, together with recent UK data, permitted reductions in the health burden to be quantified. RESULTS: Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are shown to reduce by (i) increasing coverage to include children aged 5 to 11 years, (ii) activating moderate NPI measures and/or (iii) increasing coverage levels above 80%. At 80% coverage, vaccinating ages 12 and above without NPIs is predicted to result in 1095 additional hospitalisations per million population; adding ages 5 and above reduces this to 996 per million population. Activating moderate NPIs reduces hospitalisations to 611 for ages 12 and over, and 382 per million for ages 5 and above. Alternatively, increasing coverage to 90% for those aged 12 and above is estimated to reduce hospitalisations to 616. Combining all three measures is shown to reduce cases to 158, hospitalisations to 1 and deaths to zero, per million population. CONCLUSIONS: Delta variant outbreaks may be managed by vaccine coverage rates higher than 80% and activation of moderate NPI measures, preventing healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. If 90% coverage cannot be achieved, including young children and adolescents in the vaccination program coupled with activation of moderate NPIs appears necessary to suppress future COVID-19 Delta-like transmission and prevent intensive care unit surge capacity from being exceeded. SN - 1741-7015 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/35177062/Mitigating_the_SARS_CoV_2_Delta_disease_burden_in_Australia_by_non_pharmaceutical_interventions_and_vaccinating_children:_a_modelling_analysis_ L2 - https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-022-02241-3 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -