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Non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Senegal: a modelling study.
BMJ Glob Health. 2022 02; 7(2)BG

Abstract

BACKGROUND

When vaccines against the novel COVID-19 were available in Senegal, many questions were raised. How long should non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) be maintained during vaccination roll-out? What are the best vaccination strategies?

METHODS

In this study, we used an age-structured dynamic mathematical model. This model uses parameters based on SARS-CoV-2 virus, information on different types of NPIs, epidemiological and demographic data, some parameters relating to hospitalisations and vaccination in Senegal.

RESULTS

In all scenarios explored, the model predicts a larger third epidemic wave of COVID-19 in terms of new cases and deaths than the previous waves. In a context of limited vaccine supply, vaccination alone will not be sufficient to control the epidemic, and the continuation of NPIs is necessary to flatten the epidemic curve. Assuming 20% of the population have been vaccinated, the optimal period to relax NPIs would be a few days from the last peak. Regarding the prioritisation of age groups to be vaccinated, the model shows that it is better to vaccinate individuals aged 5-60 years and not just the elderly (over 60 years) and those in high-risk groups. This strategy could be more cost-effective for the government, as it would reduce the high costs associated with hospitalisation. In terms of vaccine distribution, the optimal strategy would be to allocate full dose to the elderly. If vaccine doses are limited, half dose followed by full dose would be sufficient for people under 40 years because whether they receive half or full dose, the reduction in hospitalisations would be similar and their death-to-case ratio is very low.

CONCLUSIONS

This study could be presented as a decision support tool to help devise strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic and help the Ministry of Health to better manage and allocate the available vaccine doses.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal maryam.diarra@pasteur.sn.Bio-Informatics, Mathematics, Statistics, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Bio-Informatics, Mathematics, Statistics, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.No affiliation info availableNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.Epidemiology, Clinical Recherche and Data Science, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Bio-Informatics, Mathematics, Statistics, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

35193893

Citation

Diarra, Maryam, et al. "Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Senegal: a Modelling Study." BMJ Global Health, vol. 7, no. 2, 2022.
Diarra M, Kebir A, Talla C, et al. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Senegal: a modelling study. BMJ Glob Health. 2022;7(2).
Diarra, M., Kebir, A., Talla, C., Barry, A., Faye, J., Louati, D., Opatowski, L., Diop, M., White, L. J., Loucoubar, C., & Miled, S. B. (2022). Non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Senegal: a modelling study. BMJ Global Health, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007236
Diarra M, et al. Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Senegal: a Modelling Study. BMJ Glob Health. 2022;7(2) PubMed PMID: 35193893.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Senegal: a modelling study. AU - Diarra,Maryam, AU - Kebir,Amira, AU - Talla,Cheikh, AU - Barry,Aliou, AU - Faye,Joseph, AU - Louati,Dorra, AU - Opatowski,Lulla, AU - Diop,Mamadou, AU - ,, AU - White,Lisa J, AU - Loucoubar,Cheikh, AU - Miled,Slimane Ben, PY - 2021/08/19/received PY - 2022/01/04/accepted PY - 2022/2/23/entrez PY - 2022/2/24/pubmed PY - 2022/3/1/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - control strategies KW - mathematical modelling KW - prevention strategies KW - vaccines JF - BMJ global health JO - BMJ Glob Health VL - 7 IS - 2 N2 - BACKGROUND: When vaccines against the novel COVID-19 were available in Senegal, many questions were raised. How long should non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) be maintained during vaccination roll-out? What are the best vaccination strategies? METHODS: In this study, we used an age-structured dynamic mathematical model. This model uses parameters based on SARS-CoV-2 virus, information on different types of NPIs, epidemiological and demographic data, some parameters relating to hospitalisations and vaccination in Senegal. RESULTS: In all scenarios explored, the model predicts a larger third epidemic wave of COVID-19 in terms of new cases and deaths than the previous waves. In a context of limited vaccine supply, vaccination alone will not be sufficient to control the epidemic, and the continuation of NPIs is necessary to flatten the epidemic curve. Assuming 20% of the population have been vaccinated, the optimal period to relax NPIs would be a few days from the last peak. Regarding the prioritisation of age groups to be vaccinated, the model shows that it is better to vaccinate individuals aged 5-60 years and not just the elderly (over 60 years) and those in high-risk groups. This strategy could be more cost-effective for the government, as it would reduce the high costs associated with hospitalisation. In terms of vaccine distribution, the optimal strategy would be to allocate full dose to the elderly. If vaccine doses are limited, half dose followed by full dose would be sufficient for people under 40 years because whether they receive half or full dose, the reduction in hospitalisations would be similar and their death-to-case ratio is very low. CONCLUSIONS: This study could be presented as a decision support tool to help devise strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic and help the Ministry of Health to better manage and allocate the available vaccine doses. SN - 2059-7908 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/35193893/Non_pharmaceutical_interventions_and_COVID_19_vaccination_strategies_in_Senegal:_a_modelling_study_ L2 - https://gh.bmj.com/lookup/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=35193893 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -