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Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 06; 28(11):3711-3727.GC

Abstract

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Bringloe TT
School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Wilkinson DP
School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Goldsmit J
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Arctic and Aquatic Research Division, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Mont-Joli, Québec, Canada.
Savoie AM
Centre for Arctic Knowledge and Exploration, Canadian Museum of Nature, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Filbee-Dexter K
Département de Biologie, ArcticNet, Québec Océan, Université Laval, Québec, Québec, Canada. School of Biological Sciences, UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia. Institute of Marine Research, Floedivigen Research Station, His, Norway.
Macgregor KA
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Mont-Joli, Québec, Canada.
Howland KL
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Arctic and Aquatic Research Division, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
McKindsey CW
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Mont-Joli, Québec, Canada.
Verbruggen H
School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

MeSH

Arctic RegionsCanadaClimate ChangeEcosystemForests

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

35212084

Citation

Bringloe, Trevor T., et al. "Arctic Marine Forest Distribution Models Showcase Potentially Severe Habitat Losses for Cryophilic Species Under Climate Change." Global Change Biology, vol. 28, no. 11, 2022, pp. 3711-3727.
Bringloe TT, Wilkinson DP, Goldsmit J, et al. Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change. Glob Chang Biol. 2022;28(11):3711-3727.
Bringloe, T. T., Wilkinson, D. P., Goldsmit, J., Savoie, A. M., Filbee-Dexter, K., Macgregor, K. A., Howland, K. L., McKindsey, C. W., & Verbruggen, H. (2022). Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change. Global Change Biology, 28(11), 3711-3727. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16142
Bringloe TT, et al. Arctic Marine Forest Distribution Models Showcase Potentially Severe Habitat Losses for Cryophilic Species Under Climate Change. Glob Chang Biol. 2022;28(11):3711-3727. PubMed PMID: 35212084.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change. AU - Bringloe,Trevor T, AU - Wilkinson,David P, AU - Goldsmit,Jesica, AU - Savoie,Amanda M, AU - Filbee-Dexter,Karen, AU - Macgregor,Kathleen A, AU - Howland,Kimberly L, AU - McKindsey,Christopher W, AU - Verbruggen,Heroen, Y1 - 2022/03/08/ PY - 2022/02/16/revised PY - 2021/09/06/received PY - 2022/02/17/accepted PY - 2022/2/26/pubmed PY - 2022/5/4/medline PY - 2022/2/25/entrez KW - MaxEnt models KW - ecological niche modelling KW - kelp KW - seaweed SP - 3711 EP - 3727 JF - Global change biology JO - Glob Chang Biol VL - 28 IS - 11 N2 - The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas. SN - 1365-2486 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/35212084/Arctic_marine_forest_distribution_models_showcase_potentially_severe_habitat_losses_for_cryophilic_species_under_climate_change_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -