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The effect of livestock density on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense: A causal inference-based approach.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 08; 16(8):e0010155.PN

Abstract

Domestic and wild animals are important reservoirs of the rhodesiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT), however quantification of this effect offers utility for deploying non-medical control activities, and anticipating their success when wildlife are excluded. Further, the uncertain role of animal reservoirs-particularly pigs-threatens elimination of transmission (EOT) targets set for the gambiense form (gHAT). Using a new time series of high-resolution cattle and pig density maps, HAT surveillance data collated by the WHO Atlas of HAT, and methods drawn from causal inference and spatial epidemiology, we conducted a retrospective ecological cohort study in Uganda, Malawi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan to estimate the effect of cattle and pig density on HAT risk. For rHAT, we found a positive effect for cattle (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.90, 2.99) and pigs (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.15, 2.75) in Uganda, and a negative effect for cattle (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.71, 1.10) and pigs (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.67) in Malawi. For gHAT we found a negative effect for cattle in Uganda (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.50, 1.77) and South Sudan (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54, 0.77) but a positive effect in DRC (1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.32). For pigs, we found a positive gHAT effect in both Uganda (RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.87, 3.94) and DRC (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10, 1.37), and a negative association in South Sudan (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98). These effects did not reach significance for the cattle-rHAT effect in Uganda or Malawi, or the cattle-gHAT and pig-gHAT effects in Uganda. While ecological bias may drive the findings in South Sudan, estimated E-values and simulation studies suggest unmeasured confounding and underreporting are unlikely to explain our findings in Malawi, Uganda, and DRC. Our results suggest cattle and pigs may be important reservoirs of rHAT in Uganda but not Malawi, and that pigs-and possibly cattle-may be gHAT reservoirs.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Meisner J
Center for One Health Research, Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America. Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Kato A
Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda.
Lemerani MM
Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Mwamba Miaka E
Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Ismail Taban A
IntraHealth International, Juba, South Sudan.
Wakefield J
Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America. Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Rowhani-Rahbar A
Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Pigott DM
Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Mayer JD
Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Rabinowitz PM
Center for One Health Research, Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.

MeSH

AnimalsCattleCohort StudiesHumansLivestockRetrospective StudiesSwineTrypanosoma brucei gambienseTrypanosoma brucei rhodesienseTrypanosomiasis, AfricanUganda

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

36037205

Citation

Meisner, Julianne, et al. "The Effect of Livestock Density On Trypanosoma Brucei Gambiense and T. B. Rhodesiense: a Causal Inference-based Approach." PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 16, no. 8, 2022, pp. e0010155.
Meisner J, Kato A, Lemerani MM, et al. The effect of livestock density on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense: A causal inference-based approach. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022;16(8):e0010155.
Meisner, J., Kato, A., Lemerani, M. M., Mwamba Miaka, E., Ismail Taban, A., Wakefield, J., Rowhani-Rahbar, A., Pigott, D. M., Mayer, J. D., & Rabinowitz, P. M. (2022). The effect of livestock density on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense: A causal inference-based approach. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(8), e0010155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010155
Meisner J, et al. The Effect of Livestock Density On Trypanosoma Brucei Gambiense and T. B. Rhodesiense: a Causal Inference-based Approach. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022;16(8):e0010155. PubMed PMID: 36037205.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The effect of livestock density on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense: A causal inference-based approach. AU - Meisner,Julianne, AU - Kato,Agapitus, AU - Lemerani,Marshal Msanyama, AU - Mwamba Miaka,Erick, AU - Ismail Taban,Acaga, AU - Wakefield,Jonathan, AU - Rowhani-Rahbar,Ali, AU - Pigott,David M, AU - Mayer,Jonathan D, AU - Rabinowitz,Peter M, Y1 - 2022/08/29/ PY - 2022/01/12/received PY - 2022/07/19/accepted PY - 2022/09/09/revised PY - 2022/8/30/pubmed PY - 2022/9/14/medline PY - 2022/8/29/entrez SP - e0010155 EP - e0010155 JF - PLoS neglected tropical diseases JO - PLoS Negl Trop Dis VL - 16 IS - 8 N2 - Domestic and wild animals are important reservoirs of the rhodesiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT), however quantification of this effect offers utility for deploying non-medical control activities, and anticipating their success when wildlife are excluded. Further, the uncertain role of animal reservoirs-particularly pigs-threatens elimination of transmission (EOT) targets set for the gambiense form (gHAT). Using a new time series of high-resolution cattle and pig density maps, HAT surveillance data collated by the WHO Atlas of HAT, and methods drawn from causal inference and spatial epidemiology, we conducted a retrospective ecological cohort study in Uganda, Malawi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan to estimate the effect of cattle and pig density on HAT risk. For rHAT, we found a positive effect for cattle (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.90, 2.99) and pigs (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.15, 2.75) in Uganda, and a negative effect for cattle (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.71, 1.10) and pigs (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.67) in Malawi. For gHAT we found a negative effect for cattle in Uganda (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.50, 1.77) and South Sudan (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54, 0.77) but a positive effect in DRC (1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.32). For pigs, we found a positive gHAT effect in both Uganda (RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.87, 3.94) and DRC (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10, 1.37), and a negative association in South Sudan (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98). These effects did not reach significance for the cattle-rHAT effect in Uganda or Malawi, or the cattle-gHAT and pig-gHAT effects in Uganda. While ecological bias may drive the findings in South Sudan, estimated E-values and simulation studies suggest unmeasured confounding and underreporting are unlikely to explain our findings in Malawi, Uganda, and DRC. Our results suggest cattle and pigs may be important reservoirs of rHAT in Uganda but not Malawi, and that pigs-and possibly cattle-may be gHAT reservoirs. SN - 1935-2735 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/36037205/The_effect_of_livestock_density_on_Trypanosoma_brucei_gambiense_and_T__b__rhodesiense:_A_causal_inference_based_approach_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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