TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting distributional shifts of Patella spp. in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, under climate change. AU - Freitas,Diana, AU - Borges,Débora, AU - Arenas,Francisco, AU - Pinto,Isabel Sousa, AU - Vale,Cândida Gomes, Y1 - 2023/03/08/ PY - 2022/12/19/received PY - 2023/03/01/revised PY - 2023/03/07/accepted PY - 2023/3/13/pubmed PY - 2023/3/13/medline PY - 2023/3/12/entrez KW - Ecological niche models KW - Limpets KW - Patella depressa KW - Patella rustica KW - Patella ulyssiponensis KW - Patella vulgata SP - 105945 EP - 105945 JF - Marine environmental research JO - Mar Environ Res VL - 186 N2 - Mapping species' geographical distribution is fundamental for understanding current patterns and forecasting future changes. Living on rocky shores along the intertidal zone, limpets are vulnerable to climate change, as their range limits are controlled by seawater temperature. Many works have been studying limpets' potential responses to climate change at local and regional scales. Focusing on four Patella species living on the rocky shores of the Portuguese continental coast, this study aims to predict climate change impacts on their global distribution, while exploring the role of the Portuguese intertidal as potential climate refugia. Ecological niche models combine occurrences and environmental data to identify the drivers of these species' distributions, define their current range, and project to future climate scenarios. The distribution of these limpets was mostly defined by low bathymetry (intertidal) and the seawater temperature. Independent of the climate scenario, all species will gain suitable conditions at the northern distribution edge while losing in the south, yet only the extent of occurrence of P. rustica is expected to contract. Apart from the southern coast, maintenance of suitable conditions for these limpets' occurrence was predicted for the western coast of Portugal. The predicted northward range shift follows the observed pattern observed for many intertidal species. Given the ecosystem role of this species, attention should be given to their southern range limits. Under the current upwelling effect, the Portuguese western coast might constitute thermal refugia for limpets in the future. SN - 1879-0291 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/36907078/Forecasting_distributional_shifts_of_Patella_spp__in_the_Northeast_Atlantic_Ocean_under_climate_change_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -