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Twenty-five-year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes.
Stroke. 1996 Mar; 27(3):381-7.S

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This report explores the prediction of long-term stroke mortality in cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

METHODS

Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40 to 59 years at entry were examined at years 0, 5, and 10, with mortality follow-up through 25 years.

RESULTS

Stroke death rates in 25 years were high in rural Serbia, Croatia, and Japan; intermediate in Italy, Greece, and urban Serbia; and low in Finland, the Netherlands, and the United States. Age and blood pressure were powerful predictors of 25-year stroke mortality in almost all cohorts and countries. Proportional hazards regression coefficients were .0232 increase in stroke death hazard per millimeter of mercury (t=14.60) for systolic blood pressure and .0409 (t=13.41) for diastolic blood pressure. Moderate blood pressure increases from low usual levels were associated with lower stroke mortality rates in years 10 to 25. Increases of blood pressure starting from high usual levels were associated with increased rates of stroke mortality. Systolic blood pressure was associated with stroke mortality at given levels of diastolic pressure, but diastolic blood pressure was not predictive of stroke mortality at given levels of systolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations of systolic and diastolic blood pressure with stroke mortality were similar in cultures with different stroke mortality rates. Increases in blood pressure were associated with subsequent excess stroke mortality only in those who started from high usual levels; this study finds lower stroke risk in those men whose blood pressure increased moderately from low usual levels. Diastolic blood pressure is not independently associated with stroke risk in these populations.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55454-1015, USA.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

8610299

Citation

Menotti, A, et al. "Twenty-five-year Prediction of Stroke Deaths in the Seven Countries Study: the Role of Blood Pressure and Its Changes." Stroke, vol. 27, no. 3, 1996, pp. 381-7.
Menotti A, Jacobs DR, Blackburn H, et al. Twenty-five-year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes. Stroke. 1996;27(3):381-7.
Menotti, A., Jacobs, D. R., Blackburn, H., Kromhout, D., Nissinen, A., Nedeljkovic, S., Buzina, R., Mohacek, I., Seccareccia, F., Giampaoli, S., Dontas, A., Aravanis, C., & Toshima, H. (1996). Twenty-five-year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes. Stroke, 27(3), 381-7.
Menotti A, et al. Twenty-five-year Prediction of Stroke Deaths in the Seven Countries Study: the Role of Blood Pressure and Its Changes. Stroke. 1996;27(3):381-7. PubMed PMID: 8610299.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Twenty-five-year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes. AU - Menotti,A, AU - Jacobs,D R,Jr AU - Blackburn,H, AU - Kromhout,D, AU - Nissinen,A, AU - Nedeljkovic,S, AU - Buzina,R, AU - Mohacek,I, AU - Seccareccia,F, AU - Giampaoli,S, AU - Dontas,A, AU - Aravanis,C, AU - Toshima,H, PY - 1996/3/1/pubmed PY - 2001/3/28/medline PY - 1996/3/1/entrez SP - 381 EP - 7 JF - Stroke JO - Stroke VL - 27 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This report explores the prediction of long-term stroke mortality in cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. METHODS: Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40 to 59 years at entry were examined at years 0, 5, and 10, with mortality follow-up through 25 years. RESULTS: Stroke death rates in 25 years were high in rural Serbia, Croatia, and Japan; intermediate in Italy, Greece, and urban Serbia; and low in Finland, the Netherlands, and the United States. Age and blood pressure were powerful predictors of 25-year stroke mortality in almost all cohorts and countries. Proportional hazards regression coefficients were .0232 increase in stroke death hazard per millimeter of mercury (t=14.60) for systolic blood pressure and .0409 (t=13.41) for diastolic blood pressure. Moderate blood pressure increases from low usual levels were associated with lower stroke mortality rates in years 10 to 25. Increases of blood pressure starting from high usual levels were associated with increased rates of stroke mortality. Systolic blood pressure was associated with stroke mortality at given levels of diastolic pressure, but diastolic blood pressure was not predictive of stroke mortality at given levels of systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Associations of systolic and diastolic blood pressure with stroke mortality were similar in cultures with different stroke mortality rates. Increases in blood pressure were associated with subsequent excess stroke mortality only in those who started from high usual levels; this study finds lower stroke risk in those men whose blood pressure increased moderately from low usual levels. Diastolic blood pressure is not independently associated with stroke risk in these populations. SN - 0039-2499 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/8610299/Twenty_five_year_prediction_of_stroke_deaths_in_the_seven_countries_study:_the_role_of_blood_pressure_and_its_changes_ L2 - http://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/01.str.27.3.381?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub=pubmed DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -