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Estimated risks for developing obesity in the Framingham Heart Study.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001.

SETTING

Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts.

PARTICIPANTS

4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study.

MEASUREMENTS

The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] > or = 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2).

RESULTS

The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age.

LIMITATIONS

These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.

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  • Authors+Show Affiliations

    ,

    National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, Framingham 01702-5803, USA. vasan@bu.edu

    , , ,

    Source

    Annals of internal medicine 143:7 2005 Oct 04 pg 473-80

    MeSH

    Adult
    Age Distribution
    Body Mass Index
    Female
    Humans
    Male
    Middle Aged
    Obesity
    Prospective Studies
    Risk Factors
    Sex Distribution
    United States
    Weight Gain

    Pub Type(s)

    Journal Article
    Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

    Language

    eng

    PubMed ID

    16204159

    Citation

    Vasan, Ramachandran S., et al. "Estimated Risks for Developing Obesity in the Framingham Heart Study." Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 143, no. 7, 2005, pp. 473-80.
    Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, Cobain M, et al. Estimated risks for developing obesity in the Framingham Heart Study. Ann Intern Med. 2005;143(7):473-80.
    Vasan, R. S., Pencina, M. J., Cobain, M., Freiberg, M. S., & D'Agostino, R. B. (2005). Estimated risks for developing obesity in the Framingham Heart Study. Annals of Internal Medicine, 143(7), pp. 473-80.
    Vasan RS, et al. Estimated Risks for Developing Obesity in the Framingham Heart Study. Ann Intern Med. 2005 Oct 4;143(7):473-80. PubMed PMID: 16204159.
    * Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
    TY - JOUR T1 - Estimated risks for developing obesity in the Framingham Heart Study. AU - Vasan,Ramachandran S, AU - Pencina,Michael J, AU - Cobain,Mark, AU - Freiberg,Matthew S, AU - D'Agostino,Ralph B, PY - 2005/10/6/pubmed PY - 2005/10/8/medline PY - 2005/10/6/entrez SP - 473 EP - 80 JF - Annals of internal medicine JO - Ann. Intern. Med. VL - 143 IS - 7 N2 - BACKGROUND: The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001. SETTING: Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: 4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study. MEASUREMENTS: The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] > or = 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2). RESULTS: The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age. LIMITATIONS: These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial. SN - 1539-3704 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/16204159/full_citation L2 - https://www.annals.org/article.aspx?volume=143&issue=7&page=473 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -